The South African table grape industry expects 2022/2023 season volumes inspected for export to decrease by approximately 8.1% compared to figures quoted in the first crop estimate (published on the 31st of October 2022). It is anticipated that overall harvest volumes will be approximately 15.1% lower than figures recorded in the 2021/2022 season.
The revised crop estimate anticipates that approximately 66 million cartons (4.5kg equivalent) will be inspected for export, with the upper limit projected at 103% and the lower limit projected at 97% of this figure.
Export volumes are expected to align very closely with South Africa’s 5-year average, which should result in export markets receiving sufficient volumes of good quality grapes from South Africa. Producers and exporters will continue to make commercial decisions in line with prevailing market conditions.
Volumes expected from the Orange River Region have decreased significantly. Unfavourable weather conditions during the growing and harvesting season has resulted in an earlier than usual harvest and lower volumes than anticipated. It is expected that the supply of white seedless grapes may be constrained during the next few weeks. The current estimate for the region is 16 million cartons (4.5 kg equivalent) which is 28.4% lower than last season and 18% lower than the initial crop estimate, of 19.5 million cartons.
The Northern Regions’ volumes are expected to contract further than figures quoted in the initial crop estimate. Revised volumes for the region anticipate 5.1 million cartons (4.5 kg equivalent) to be inspected for export which represents a decrease of 31.5% in relation to the previous season and 17.7% decrease compared to the first crop estimate. Focus on quality remains a priority for the region, as trying weather conditions persist.
The Olifants River Region is the smallest producing region and although their regional estimate has been adjusted downward by almost 10%, the overall effect on the national estimate is minimal. Current figures indicate an estimate of 3 million cartons, which is 15.7% lower than the previous season.
Both the Hex River and Berg River Regions experienced unseasonal rainfall in the last 14 days. Fortunately, early indications are that damage to the crop has been minimal, although in isolated cases specific producers have experienced substantial damage. The combined adjustment between these two regions is a 2% decrease on initial estimates.
Based on feedback received from producers, the crop estimation committee felt a limited adjustment should be made to these regions’ first estimates given the limits of the estimate which already accommodate a 6% deviation. We will continue to monitor these regions over the next two weeks to determine how closely volumes remain within the original limits.
The second crop estimate represents a reasonable deduction based on multiple factors, including information currently available. SATI deemed it important to communicate adjusted volumes as soon as possible, to ensure stakeholders remain appropriately informed. Figures may be revised as required. The next crop estimate review is planned to take place in mid-January 2023.
Mr Jacques Ferreira
Information & Systems Manager
+2721 863 0366
Ms. Mecia Petersen
Market Development & Communications Manager
+2721 863 0366